There is an interesting sidelight on the Brexit vote in
the “New York Times Review of Books”. The Brexit triumph is seen as a howl of
rage on the part of the poor white working class in the old declining
industrial areas, who were given the opportunity of venting their frustrations
on a single target: Europe. Parallels are drawn with Donald Trump’s success in
appealing to the same socio-economic groups in the so-called “rust belt” and
the backwoods rural districts of America. Trump himself is aware of the parallels,
and encourages his supporters by pointing out how Brexit was able to triumph,
against all predictions and against the advice of almost all political and
business leaders.
None of this can be explained by traditional class-based theories. Contrast an area I know well: Stoke-on-Trent: rock-solid Labour; the home of traditional heavy industries (ceramics, coal and iron: all in decline for many years), with its own proud local traditions, and strongly Brexit; with another area I know: Richmond-on-Thames: rock-solid Tory, with some of the highest house prices in the country, and over 70% for Remain. To add to the confusion, the Stoke M.P.s backed Remain, but the Richmond M.P. backed Brexit!
The clearest divisions are in education. In America the majority of college graduates traditionally voted Republican, whereas blue-collar workers voted Democrat. This could well change: probably not many graduates are likely to support Trump, but on the other hand he could do well in a state like Pennsylvania, which is full of rust belt industrial towns (Does anyone remember Billy Joel's classic song "Allentown", about the decline of the steel industry there?). In our referendum, an overwhelming majority of people with university degrees voted for Remain, as did the inhabitants of London and the academic centres, Oxford and Cambridge. Following this, in the general election of 2019, the Conservatives took all the seats in Stoke (which had remained solidly Labour even in the Thatcher years) and cut a swathe through the old Labour seats in the north-east, but failed to win back any of the university towns like Oxfoed,Cambridge, Exeter and Canterbury, and even lost ultra-prosperous seats like Putney and Richmond-on-Thames! This the biggest political revolution in a generation!
None of this can be explained by traditional class-based theories. Contrast an area I know well: Stoke-on-Trent: rock-solid Labour; the home of traditional heavy industries (ceramics, coal and iron: all in decline for many years), with its own proud local traditions, and strongly Brexit; with another area I know: Richmond-on-Thames: rock-solid Tory, with some of the highest house prices in the country, and over 70% for Remain. To add to the confusion, the Stoke M.P.s backed Remain, but the Richmond M.P. backed Brexit!
The clearest divisions are in education. In America the majority of college graduates traditionally voted Republican, whereas blue-collar workers voted Democrat. This could well change: probably not many graduates are likely to support Trump, but on the other hand he could do well in a state like Pennsylvania, which is full of rust belt industrial towns (Does anyone remember Billy Joel's classic song "Allentown", about the decline of the steel industry there?). In our referendum, an overwhelming majority of people with university degrees voted for Remain, as did the inhabitants of London and the academic centres, Oxford and Cambridge. Following this, in the general election of 2019, the Conservatives took all the seats in Stoke (which had remained solidly Labour even in the Thatcher years) and cut a swathe through the old Labour seats in the north-east, but failed to win back any of the university towns like Oxfoed,Cambridge, Exeter and Canterbury, and even lost ultra-prosperous seats like Putney and Richmond-on-Thames! This the biggest political revolution in a generation!
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